Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Deeper, Longer and Harder - Welcome Recession !!!

Year 2008, it started on very positive note, for India atleast. In 2007 Market touched new highs and collection through IPOs was also all time high. It was cool morning of 14'Jan'08 when biggest, most waited and most overvalued IPO of India was announced. The Euphoria was that form Bangalore to Delhi, from Ahemadabad to Calcutta everyone was saying
"Power On to India On :: R-Power !!!

R-Power IPO created new records not in the capital markets of India but in World capital makrets. It collected 7.56 Lakhs Cores Rs. and set new benchmarks for world capital Markets. Sensex was around 21,000 at that moment and analysts were expecting that it will close around 28,000 by the end of 2008, irony is, Sensex trading around 13,500 on 15 Sept'08, its less then half the expectations.

Market started toppling down with closing of R-Power IPO and since then it lost around 30%. Increasing inflation, high fuel prices, global volatility, recession in USA and internal security in chaos. All things went wrong for Indian Stock Makrets and it followed its global peers. Year 2008 has already seen top 5 biggest one day crashes in history.

Monday 15'Sept'08 added one of the worst day in global finance world. One of oldest and biggest financial organisation Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy and another biggy Merrill Lynch is sold. Such things happens once in a Century. Yes, i said "Once in a Century".

Fears of global slowdown are almost confirmed now. There have been big recessions in USA and around the globe in 1930, 1970, 1980, 2000. But unlike in 30s and 70s, recessions of 2000 were shortlived and followed by boom. But this time, as more and more finance companies are going for Bankruptcy and Sold out, there are signs of long, deep and hard recessions.

As we know that world economies are linked like never before and impacr of USA will be seen all over the globe, infact we are seeing it, so it can be said easily that we will also feel the heat in this time. Although though recently local Insaurance investment firms surpassed FIIs in terms of investment in Indian markets but the effect will be there. FIIs are already on selling route and marekts trading more then a years low, we can see new lows in very near future.

Yes, new lows and long recession will impact global economies.
Lets the dust settle. Lets the picture clear.
Till then its better for retail investors to stay away instead of burning thier Fingers !!!

Keep your eyes and ears open. Keep your Demat accounts and Bank accounts closed !!!

1 comment:

Pilot-Pooja said...

Nice & catchy way to express the uncertainty:

"Once in a century"

Informative post again!